As always, I’m going to give you a real-life example by running the numbers on what it looks like to rent the median home right now versus buying the median home. So, with that said, let’s dive in.

First, let’s address a common concern: Is the housing market going to crash? I get it—home prices are high, interest rates are up, and it feels expensive to buy a home right now. But here’s the thing: waiting for a market crash could leave you missing out. A lot of people get caught up in fear and market speculation, which can cloud their judgment. Today, I want to clear up some of that confusion and help you focus on what really matters: your personal circumstances.

Now, let me be clear: a housing crash is highly unlikely in 2024. Why? The simple answer is supply and demand. For a crash to happen, there needs to be a massive oversupply of homes, which we just don’t have. In fact, most markets across the U.S. still have more buyers than available homes, and that’s not changing anytime soon.

I’ll pull up a chart from ResiClub that illustrates buyer demand versus available homes in different markets across the U.S. As you can see, most areas are stable, with more buyers than sellers. Sure, there are exceptions—some regions like parts of Florida and Texas have seen an increase in supply and a slight drop in prices. But even there, we’re not witnessing a crash.

Even in places where inventory has doubled, like Los Angeles, there still isn’t enough supply to meet demand. The idea of a market crash just isn’t on the table right now. So, rather than focusing on what might happen, it’s crucial to think about what’s best for you at this moment. That’s the heart of today’s video.

I’ve been helping buyers and sellers navigate the Southern California market for over 20 years, and the key is always focusing on your long-term goals. If you’re planning on staying in a home for at least five years, buying could make sense. However, if you’re unsure, waiting might be a better choice. Housing appreciation has slowed down compared to the boom years of 2020 and 2021, so we’re not expecting double-digit growth anymore. But long-term, housing remains one of the best ways to build wealth.

If you’re financially unstable, unsure about your job, or have short-term housing needs, waiting could be the smarter option. But if you have job stability, relationship stability, and a long-term plan, it might be time to take the plunge and lock in your housing costs before they go up further.

Let’s run some numbers. The median rent nationwide is around $2,100 per month. Here in Los Angeles, it’s even higher—about $2,700 for an apartment and roughly $4,500 for a single-family home. Meanwhile, the median home price in LA County is about $967,000. If you were to buy a million-dollar home with a 20% down payment, your monthly mortgage payment—including principal, interest, taxes, and insurance—would be around $6,360.

That’s a big difference compared to rent, but here’s the catch: over time, rent will increase. Historically, rents rise about 3% per year. If you stay in the same place for 14 years, you’ll eventually be paying as much or more in rent than you would in a mortgage. But with a mortgage, you’re building equity and wealth through home appreciation.

So yes, homeownership comes with higher upfront costs, but the long-term benefits far outweigh renting. You’re paying down your mortgage each month, building equity, and creating financial stability for yourself. Renting, on the other hand, only helps your landlord build equity.

I realize it’s a big decision, especially in today’s market, and it’s not for everyone. But if you have a long-term horizon and the financial ability to buy, it could be the right move for you.

Where are you in the process? Are you looking to buy? Already own real estate? Or are you still on the fence about whether to wait or dive in? I’d love to hear from you, so leave a comment or reach out.

Thanks for watching! If you found value in today’s video, hit that thumbs up, and don’t forget to subscribe for more updates. You can always reach me at 818-396-3311. That’s 818-396-3311. I’m Scott Himelstein with the Scott Himelstein Group, and I look forward to helping you navigate the 2024 housing market!